The Round of 16 has been completed. Five if the eight games ended level at 90 minutes. Two of those five were still level at the end of the 120 minutes.
Brasil 1 – 1 Chile
Costa Rica 1 – 1 Greece
Enter the dreaded penalty shoot-out.
Lots has been made about how it is just luck, it is a 50/50 chance to get through to the next round, whoever can hold their nerve will win, etc.
But a little analysis shows this not entirely to be the case.
Brasil 1 – 1 Chile (Brasil wins 3 – 2 on penalties)
This was a match that was full of tension, missed opportunity and high drama. Both teams had expectations of going into the 4th week of the tournament. It was played on a warm day in Belo Horizonte. Players were mentally and physically drained at the end of the 120 minutes.
Julio Cesar was in tears before the shootout. The (largely) home crowd were dreading the possibility of the unthinkable being under 10 spot kicks away.
In the end, Brasil just got over the line 3-2 with all 10 kicks taken.
Costa Rica 1 – 1 Greece (Costa Rica wins 5-3 on penalties)
This match was tense, but not in the same way as the Brasil/Chile match. While the first R16 clash was reminiscent of two heavyweights slugging it out for the title, this had the air of two contenders at altitudes they had never sampled. Caution was the name of the game. A spot in the Quarter Final was at stake for two nations who had never been this far into the World Cup before (Greece had never even made the knockout stage).
Whilst Costa Rica took the lead, Greece were given a lifeline by Duarte seeing a Ben Williams’ red card and Costa Rica were left to hang on, firstly for the 1-0 victory, then when Greece equalised in the 92nd minutes, to hang on for penalties through the entire extra time period.
Greece with the numerical advantage dominated extra time and failed to make Costa Rica pay. When the final whistle went, the Ticos fell into an exhausted heap on the field. The possibility of them lifting for 5 spot kicks and NOT crumbling under the immense pressure of failing at the last hurdle looked impossible.
Yet they stood up and converted all 5 spot kicks and progressed into the Quarter Finals.
So why did both games produce vastly different shoot-out results?
Brasil v Chile Shoot Out
Costa Rica v Greece Shoot Out
1. Expectations
Both Brasil and Chile had the ability and the chances to win the game inside 90 and then 120 minutes. It was surprising to many that the match made it all the way to the shoot out.
Costa Rica and Greece on the other hand were both quite prepared to take it to penalties if required. Both were in unchartered territory and could be many more years before they have a similar opportunity. It was safety first for both.
2. Preparations
Julio Cesar saved Chile’s first penalty because he used to play with Pinilla at Cagliari and knew he had a preference for hitting one straight at the keeper.
Neymar hit his penalty (B5) in the exact same spot as he did for his spot kick v Croatia in the very first match. Yer Bravo dived the other way.
The only penalty missed in the Costa Rica/Greece shoot out was by Gekas, who used to play at Levante with Tico’s GK Navas. Navas knew that Gekas favoured hitting it to his left, and duly did it.
Joel Campbell spent last season on loan at Olympiakos, where the bulk of the Greek squad plays. Yet none of them knew – or could tell Karnezis – which way to dive.
3. Technique
As painful and devastating as it is for me revisit this dark memory, this is how you take a penalty.
I still find it unfathomable that so many players hit the ball at the GK’s waist height and wonder why their shot was saved.
There was one shot, though, that is now my new example of how to hit a penalty. How good it was is best proven by the silence around the stadium as it rippled the net.
But that was the only penalty of the Brasil/Chile shootout that made it to the top of the net. The next closest was Marcelo (B3) and that was almost saved by Bravo.
Compare that to Costa Rica who hit the top of the net for 3 of their penalties (T1, T2 & T5), sent the keeper the wrong way on T4.
Costa Rica’s penalties were the best because they adhered to the golden rule of penalties: GET IT ABOVE SHOULDER HEIGHT.
This graphic is a guide to where you should aim for (excuse the inexactness – guide purposes only)
Hit it anywhere in the green zone and you WILL score. The red zone is saveable by the keeper and you will only score if the keeper dives early and the wrong way.
If we overlay the position of the penalties from both shoot outs with the green/red zone map, we get this:
* Every ball hit into the green zone scored.
* Every ball saved was in the red zone.
* Every penalty scored in the red zone was by the keeper guessing the wrong way.
4. The Goal Keeper.
It has been said many times, and especially by goalkeepers, that there is no pressure on a goalkeeper. The out field players are expected to be able to put the kicks away. If it goes in, oh well, that was expected. If it is saved, a new national hero is born.
In the Costa Rica v Greece shootout, there was one penalty per team that was struck at an almost identical position, yet it yielded two different results and decided the result. Firstly Gekas:
You can see the black line painted across the goal that denotes the goalkeeper’s shoulder height. Gekas’s shot is well below that at a good saving height and not too far off centre. Definitely savable, and it was. But when we compare this shot with Gonzalez’s shot (T3), we get something interesting:
The ball is struck at roughly the same height. Yet,
Gonzalez’s penalty is closer to the centre of the goal, making it (in theory) easier to save. But Karnezis didn’t save it. He dived further to his right than Navas did for his match-winning save.
This was one of the few times Karnezis guessed the correct way and he got nowhere near it.
THIS is where the element of luck comes into it. The ball being struck in the red zone AND the keeper dives the right way. Will he save it? It is moments like these that decide shoot outs.
In summary: What do you need to win a penalty shoot out? It comes down to three basic parameters: Practice for the penalty takers, preparation for the keepers and nerves of steel for all involved. You may not be able to do a whole lot about the nervousness, but you CAN do plenty on practice and preparation.
Hit the green zone. If you can’t do it on the training pitch, you’ve got next to no chance of doing it when the eyes of the world are on you when you make that solo walk from the centre circle to the spot. Don’t take a penalty in the shoot out until you can do it with your eyes shut. Simple.
goodluckpunters 